Our November 2025 roundtable brought together investors, regulators, utilities, and policymakers to tackle a simple question:

What is the price of asset resilience in UK infrastructure?

We used Vallorii’s VAPRI (Vallorii Price of Risk) model and our new VARI (Vallorii Asset Resilience Index) to link asset performance, environmental stress, and equity returns across sectors, with a deep dive on wastewater.

What we discussed

• Measuring resilience with AI. VARI uses rainfall, groundwater, population and overflow data to infer how sensitive each company’s network is to environmental stress. Anglian, Severn Trent, Southern and Wessex score highest; Thames, South West and Yorkshire lag despite big RCVs and, in some cases, relatively young assets.

  
  

• Valuation impacts. Plugging VARI into VAPRI shows how resilience shifts equity IRR and fair value: we estimate a range from a ~15% premium to book equity (Anglian) to a ~53% discount (Thames) required to earn a 5.9% real equity return over 10 years, holding other risks constant.

  
  

• Funding and incentives. Discussion focused on how ODIs (Outcome Delivery Incentives), asset-health metrics such as Ofgem’s NARM, higher expenditure allowances and better regulatory accounting could all be used to reward resilience rather than just RCV growth.

  
  

Participants broadly agreed that today’s valuations do not fully reward resilient companies, largely because markets lack rigorous, comparable information on asset health. Polling supported this: most saw resilience as under-priced or simply not measurable with existing disclosures.

Our modelling suggests resilience should be priced explicitly through both the allowed cost of equity and equity valuations, not treated as a side-issue hidden in ODIs.

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