Vallorii’s July roundtable convened investors, utilities, and regulators to examine how market shifts and project-specific risks are reshaping infrastructure investment in the UK. With the government targeting £725 billion in public infrastructure spending—including £96 billion in water and a major clean energy buildout—crowding in private capital is now a policy imperative. Yet traditional models, like CAPM, are failing to keep pace. Vallorii introduced its new Price of Risk Model (VAPRI), which uses AI to simulate how asset-specific affect cash flows and ultimately determine the fair Cost of Equity.

The session showcased VAPRI’s application to the £3.5bn Beckton Water Recycling DPC, where Vallorii estimates a real cost of equity of 9.2–9.6%, nearly four percentage points above Ofwat’s benchmark. With infrastructure funds facing NAV discounts and investors demanding higher returns, the message is clear: pricing future risks—not past averages—is key to unlocking the next wave of infrastructure delivery.

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